X2 vs Matrix Reloaded/Terminator3

[Oren1]

Well I'm somewhat dissapointed that Oly has seemingly skipped ahead to the summer movie season... Anyone know of somewhere offering current movie wagers? Anyways, their 2 new match-ups are intriguing, first we have X2 vs the Matrix Reloaded, both -120, and then we've got x2 vs Terminator 3, also both at -120.

At first my insticts were to jump on the Matrix Reloaded, based soley from public opinion I've picked up from friends, etc. Which would be the gen-x crowd, mainly. Most people I know are hyped for the new Matrix movies. But, looking at the opening figures for these two sequel's origional film's, I see the Matrix pulled in 27.8 million, while the X-men racked up an impressive 54.47(4-day? must have been) million. T-2 pulled in 31.8 it's opening weekend...
Here's those 3 films' total gross/opening:
The Matrix 188.9 (27.8)
T2: Judgement Day 272.4 (31.8)
X-men 157.3 (54.5)

Sooooooo...... I'm surprised that T2 was actually the higher grossing movie of all 3. The trailer for T3 looks kinda weak, most people who've seen it say it looks like a cheesy 80's movie rip-off. I've heard, although, of some cool things this movie will have that you don't see in the trailer, and I'm guessing they will make a new trailer that shows off the new female Terminator, which is going to be part solid and also part liquid metal... So expect more hype surrounding this film...

I really don't know where to go with these, the only thing to really go off of so far I guess is that boxofficereport.com has X2 projected for an 80 million opening weekend, which would be huge. No way does T3 do this well, nor the Matrix, I would guess. I guess after Spider Man's 100+ opening weekend it wouldn't be surprising to see X2 do this well, although it would be quite a large leap from the origional's take. They also have a "most anticipated" chart, where you can throw in your opinion, which has The Matrix Reloaded at #1, X-Men 2 at #3, and T3 at #4. But this poll doesn't include the younger range of theater-goers that will lean more towards X-Men 2.

Right now I'm leaning towards X2 over T3. Based soley on the trailers, I'm looking forward more to seeing X2, even though T2 was one of my all-time favorites, as it was for many. But the newer generation of movie fans are going to come out in droves for X2, while some will probably pass on T3, unless it starts a better PR campaign fueled by a cooler trailer. I don't know, watching the trailer, it just seemed like a sub-par film as far as directing and acting go, lol. Arnold used to be able to get away with it, but somehow his acting skills seem to have actually gotten worse. This movie looks pretty cheesy. I'm guessing that X2 will also beat the Matrix Reloaded, but it's impossible to say, I guess. The Matrix can pull it off if it generates enough hype.

 

[franks.]

I think these are tough to call. I'm thinking
I put T3 or Matrix over X2. The Ternimator
series was very popular and I think folks are
wondering what the heck Matrix could possibly
be about as they can kind of surmise what the other two may bring to the table. Matrix would be the more sophisticated of the 3, but who do
they open aganist on their respective w/e's?
Guess we don't know yet. Where's lakerfan?

 

[Royler]

I can guarantee you that the Matrix sequel will outperform any of these films in its opening weekend, and will quite likely wind up being the biggest hit of the summer.

The Terminator series is wheezing, the 3rd installment looks unnecessary and redundant, and Arnold is far too old for this gig. People are laughing at the trailer.

X2 is certainly more respectable competition, but the Matrix series is by FAR the more requested and talked-about franchise. Opening weekend grosses don't mean much here. T2, especially when adjusted for inflation, was a monster hit, but in '91, Arnie was King Shit at the box office. His star has since nearly expired.

Matrix will experience something akin to the Austin Powers series, where the first installment gained steam slowly, but thanks to a rabid fan base, its sequels will be tremendous hits.

I would easily put a dime on the Matrix, if not for the fact that I refuse to tie up money for any length of time in the sportsbooks. I guarantee that -120 line will not last long at all. If you don't mind the wait, take it now.

 

[Oren1]

Yeah, I already put some on X2 over T3, I think this is going to get hammered and the odds will probably change soon. People will probably jump on The Matrix, also, after reading Roylers response I'm starting to think it will probably beat X2, but I think this one will be a lot closer than X2 vs T3. I don't mind tying money up in these because in my opinion they are much safer bets than rolling your dice on basketball or hockey games.

edit: well, unfortunately I'm not the only one, the Matrix is now at a whopping -15 million. Lol, coulda got it at a pick last night. That's what I get for actually researching it, I origionally thought Matrix all the way but after looking at the box office figures for the first films I had second thoughts. But Roylers post makes a lot of sense. The -15 million throws the whole thing off, though. I'm not going to touch that one. Now you can also get X2 at +3 million over T3, apparently a lot of people like T3. I think they are wrong...

[This message was edited by Oren1 on 03-20-03 at 05:25 PM.]

[This message was edited by Oren1 on 03-20-03 at 05:26 PM.]

 

i must be gettin` old.....matrix left me cold as ice..i couldn`t sit through it...but,thanks for the info guys.....

 

[Oren1]

I'm thinking about taking X Men 2 +15 million (+105) over The Matrix Reloaded. I guess my reasons for this choice would be, I think parents will be more likely to take their kids to X Men than The Matrix, because of the more realistic violence in the later. Also, The Matrix is opening on a Thursday, and I believe that day won't be included in the 3-day total? Was wondering if Lakerfan had any opinion on this one.

On the other hand, The Matrix Reloaded's new trailers are bad as fukc, and it's looking to be one of the top flicks of 2003.

 

[lakerfan]

Oren1,

I haven't looked real hard at The Matrix yet so I can't offer a good opinion, but getting 15M is pretty good considering the Thursday angle. If I HAD TO bet it I would take X2.

I like your first bet more of X2 over T3.

All the best - lakerfan

 

[Oren1]

It would help if we knew what the Matrix was going to be rated, as the first one was rated R. I'd be shocked I guess if Reloaded wasn't PG-13, though. An R rating would make X2 look even better. Maybe I'll just skip this one for now.

 

[Royler]

"Reloaded" will indeed be an "R" film, for what it's worth.

 

[Oren1]

no kidding... I'm starting to like x2 more and more. Although I won't be shocked if Reloaded makes 83 and x2 does 67.

 

[SECprophet]

Reloaded just doesnt have the broad market appeal that T3 will have. I thought the first one was a bit too geeky sci-fi to really appeal to many movie goers. I think many who saw the first, wont be going back for the sequel. I wont. If any thing, matrix will probably do worse than the original.

Arnold is not the box office draw that he once was...in fact he hasn't done a decent movie since True Lies. collateral damage, end of days, the sixth day (i think ws the name..lol) these were all bombs. In addition, the trailers do look bad and audiences may have trouble swallowing the idea of a hot-babe terminator kicking ah-nolds ass.

And never underestimate the importance of a great director. James Cameron is the man and he turned T3 down. Also not a good sign.

X2 looks the most promising of the bunch and should be the easy winner. Hell, the first one was a pleasant surprise for me. Much better than I expected.

Just my $2/100
gl

 

[SonofaGun]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SECprophet:
.... In addition, the trailers do look bad and audiences may have trouble swallowing the idea of a hot-babe terminator kicking ah-nolds ass.... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I agree completely. I think that's my main problem when i first saw T3's trailer. It just looked real corny with a hot blonde babe carrying around missiles and blowing up shit.

 

[Oren1]

A lot of people are projecting Reloaded to make 115 over 4 days, maybe close to 100 over 3. Those are the most optimistic numbers... Not sure if it can pull it off, for reasons already discussed. But I do think it's going to be huge.

 

[JamesTrout]

The first X-Men movie's opening weekend was July 14-16 2000 and opened up to $54,471,475 in 3025 theatres.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2000&wknd=28&p=.htm

The first Matrix movie's opening weekend was in April 2-4 1999 and opened up to $27,788,331 in 2,849 theatres BUT it did have midweek previews which dented the weekend numbers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=1999&wknd=14&p=.htm

....bloody scary if you ask me.

 

[Gillian]

If you're looking for more box office odds, go to bodog.com. That is where I made a bet this morning for the movies.

 

[Oren1]

I've decided to go with X2 over the Matrix for a few reasons... already mentioned... I think Hannibal has the record for an R rated opening at 58 million, by how much reloaded is going to break this is somewhat of a mystery. I'll take my chances with the +15 million. x2 will make between 56-80 million, lol, it's hard to say, really. 56 is pretty low, but I suppose it's possible, it would't be the first time a high-profile sequel didn't out-do the origional by much. But the buzz this time around is much stronger, so realistically 60 million is probably the low-end of the spectrum. I'm guessing 65-75. With Reloaded opening on Thursday, I'd guess it makes 70-90 during the weekend. I'll do a little write up on new information I've dug up on x2/t3 monday afternoon.

 

[JamesTrout]

Intertops has:

X2 - 'evens' (or rather 1/1) versus The Matrix Reloaded's 5/7 for who will have the biggest 3 day opening weekend between Friday-to-Sunday.


The release dates WILL of course, be important. Any planned midweek openings will dent the weekend numbers.

Fascinating stuff is they have another market on sequels:

<B>Battle of the Sequels: Movie to have the highest opening weekend</B>

Simply select which of the sequels you think will have the highest box office opening weekend gross. 3-day weekend from Friday through Sunday.

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines 9/4
The Matrix Reloaded 11/4
X-Men 2 7/2
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King 7/2
The Matrix Revolutions 7/2
2 Fast 2 Furious 8/1
American Wedding 15/1
Bad Boys 2 20/1
Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle 33/1
Once Upon A Time In Mexico 40/1
Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle of Life 50/1
The Exorcist: The Beginning 66/1
Freddy v Jason 80/1
The Whole Ten Yards 100/1
Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde 100/1
Jeepers Creepers 2 150/1
Dumb & Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd 150/1

 

[Oren1]

hmmm... Terminator 3 is favored? Still not sure about that one... new trailer is far superior to the first one but...... any word yet on the rating of this film?

 

[Oren1]

http://sonypictures.com/intl/t3/quicktime/t33_intl_trailer_128k.mov

this is the new international trailer for T3. It kicks some serious
ass. To get it to run, right click on the link, do a "save as," and then open it. Your quicktime player should then pop up. That's what I had to do anyways.

I'm still leaning towards X2 though... anyone think I'm crazy, after watching this trailer?

 

[Oren1]

"Battle of the Sequels"
The overwhelming consensus among ametuer and expert forecasters alike is that the Matrix is going to be king this summer. It would set a new precendent for R-rated blockbusters, but I'll take my chances. It's selling at a very high price on the HSX, and is now right under t3 as the favorite to win. I expect it to top the list soon.

got it at 110 to win 302.50